Ayoon Wa Azan (The Problem Will Endure Whether He Lives On or Whether He Is Gone)

There is disagreement between the members of the American administration and within the Congress itself regarding the progress of the war in Afghanistan. While one group is calling for deploying more troops there until victory is achieved, another prefers that a gradual withdrawal of troops should begin. Meanwhile, everyone is waiting for President Barack Obama to announce his decision, whether to escalate the war or withdraw the troops.

Moreover, if I am to hand out my judgment regarding the performance of the Obama administration after nine months of his tenure in the White House, it would be that Barack Obama is not a warrior. For this reason, he is still hesitant although he said that the war in Afghanistan is one of necessity and not of choice, and that those who committed the terrorist attacks on 11/9/2001 will try to repeat these attacks should they be left alone.

The advocates of withdrawal from Afghanistan had in fact justified their views with the false argument that al-Qaeda had been all but defeated. To them, this is especially true when the Predator drones had killed the majority of the terrorist organization’s leadership, and when al-Qaeda had been infiltrated by informants and spies, all while suffering from many problems in recruiting fighters and suicide bombers and in raising funds, not to mention the faltering of their international alliances from Indonesia to Morocco and all that lies in between.

But how exactly accurate is this assessment? There are suicide bombers detonating themselves every day, if not from al-Qaeda, then from the Taliban, while the U.S Defense Secretary Robert Gates is acknowledging that violence in Afghanistan has increased by 60 percent since last year. The number of American soldiers killed has also approached eight hundred, including eight killed in one day last week.

In fact, the Taliban fighters are striking anywhere they want in Afghanistan, and have even taken the fight to some parts of Pakistan. Meanwhile, al-Qaeda is still present in the border area between the two countries, under the protection of the local tribes there. As such, it cannot be logically concluded that al-Qaeda has been defeated without the capture or killing of Osama bin Laden and his deputy Ayman al-Zawahiri.

Meanwhile, Gen. Stanley McChrystal, commander of the Western coalition forces in Afghanistan, is seeking to deploy 40 thousand additional troops there. He believes that such a surge would guarantee victory for his forces, something that is being supported by other U.S military leaders. President Barack Obama meanwhile, who was never involved in a conflict all throughout his life, remains hesitant between the generals in the military, and a powerful wing within the Democratic Party in particular which prefers to withdraw from Afghanistan, along with the National Security community which is now saying that the Taliban pose no threat to the United States.

In the same vein, Vice President Joe Biden, who is also a former Senator, introduced the so-called “Biden Plan” to reduce the number of ground forces posted to Afghanistan and to focus on pursuing al-Qaeda from the air by relying on airborne predator drones, which have so far proven to be effective with minimal losses.

If the Western coalition forces led by the United States should withdraw from Afghanistan, then Taliban will inevitably take over the country. Some voices opposed to the war are saying that this is something that can be tolerated, since the Taliban seem to have no violent external agenda, and that the Taliban will probably refuse to allow al-Qaeda back into Afghanistan as its presence there was the original cause of the invasion and hence Taliban’s ousting from power.

This view is inadvertently or intentionally mistaken, because the Taliban had refused in 2001 to hand over the leaders of al-Qaeda to the Americans since Muslims do not hand over other Muslims to non Muslims. The Taliban as such will not alter their behaviour whether they are back to power or not, and will not hand over al-Qaeda no matter what happens, as their religiousness is above all other considerations. Similarly, the local tribes in the border areas will not hand over the leaders of al-Qaeda regardless of all the financial rewards and military pressure.

While the world waits for President Obama to make up his mind regarding the above issues, I find that the talk about al-Qaeda’s weakness and decline is exaggerated even if it is true, because al-Qaeda spawned many other “al-Qaedas” across the Arab and Muslim worlds. This is because the original reasons behind al-Qaeda’s founding still persist and have even increased.

Going back to Osama Bin Laden’s recorded message last month, we find that he specifically mentioned the tragedy in Palestine, and the Jewish lobby’s control of the U.S foreign policy. He also mentioned a book by John Mearsheimer and Stephen M. Walt regarding this subject.

Bin Laden is a terrorist who heads a terrorist organization that must be eradicated. Nonetheless, some of his views remain true, and which hundreds of millions of Muslims also share. If one percent of those decided to follow suit, that would mean that thousands of martyrdom-seeking youths will rise in protest against occupation, and the desecration of the Holy Mosque and settlements in and around Jerusalem.

In other words, if the primary causes that the terrorists exploit to provoke anti-American sentiments in the Middle East are not ended, then the problem will still endure whether Bin Laden lives on or whether he is gone.

The solution is desired for its own sake, but also in order to pre-empt an even worse problem: if the fighting and killing should continue, from Afghanistan and Pakistan to the Palestinian territories, the terrorists will ultimately acquire weapons of mass destruction, which they will use against everyone. It is enough to examine the areas where they are active to realize that such a possibility is not farfetched.

Again, defeating al-Qaeda is desired for its own sake. However, victory will never be completely achieved unless the causes that fuel the other “Qaedas” are eliminated.