The Sahara Issue: A Conflict of Existence

By choosing the anniversary of the "green march" to address a more stringent speech on the Sahara issue, Moroccan King Mohammad VI has thus started his 10th year of reign in a different manner than the previous status quo. He could have crystallized this different approach in the Feast of the Throne, but he wished to link his new strategy with the Sahara dossier. His father, late King Al-Hasan II, kept repeating that good comes from the Sahara, and so does evil, in a clear reference to historical incidents that influenced his country's course based on the situation in the Sahara, ever since the arrival of the Morabiton who opened the Andalusia, amid the Arabs' and Berbers' melting in the Maghreb fabric. King Al-Hasan II, who considered the "green march" to be the end of the conflict with Spain over the sovereignty of the province, passed away while many dossiers he wished to finish remained unsettled.

Now, the issue seems different, at least regarding the fact that King Mohammed VI, who announced he has run out of patience over what he described as "the double standards", has decided to proceed with implementing his suggestion to grant the Sahara province an expanded autonomy. This is whether at the level of regarding his plan as the only grounds in the agenda of the negotiations that are at a standstill, or at the level of ratifying the so-called expanded organization in the province – regardless of the results of the negotiations. There are upcoming events of economic and social aspects that cannot wait forever. In addition, he consolidated his absolute rejection of using concepts and the human rights values in an issue he described as "a struggle over existence not borders."

At first glance, it looks like it is a matter of annoyance with the movement of activists who have foreign affiliations, but the developments of the dossier go in a more permeable direction, one that is focused on the fact that he who won the war cannot lose it in his quest for peace. Up until now, the majority of the initiatives to settle the conflict were made by Morocco, ever since it put forth the idea of a self-determination referendum in Nairobi in 1981, until the autonomy plan in 2005. Between the referendum and the plan, negotiations and mediations were conducted in all forms and colors, but all failed to make a breakthrough in the deadlock.

Until before the collapse of the Eastern camp and the end of the cold war, it was understood that the conflict will be tipped in favor of the hotbeds of tension that have ideological backgrounds and are influenced by the conflicts of the powerful areas. While the capitals of North Africa have come to believe in the inevitability of the economic bloc and political coordination in the framework of the Arab Maghreb Union, they missed the fact that without a solution to the Sahara issue, they will miss the most accurate dates with the train that takes off towards progress.

It was understood that the mere interference of the United Nations in the Sahara crisis represents an appropriate solution for all the parties. At the very least, abiding by the international legitimacy requires succumbing to the logic of political settlements, especially since it was always linked to a consensual formula approved by all sides. However, walking on the path of solution was shrouded in a divergence of attitudes like someone making one step forward and two steps backward.

With the advent of Algerian President Abdelaziz Bouteflika, it was believed that a greater chance looms on the horizon, especially since his tenure coincides with Moroccan King Mohammad VI assuming power. At the time, both men started their way to break an equation, the solution to which could not be reached by their predecessors, particularly because they inherited a hefty dossier, one that is regarded to be from the past's remnants.

But the good news has never come, and the last summit that grouped the presidents of the two countries in Algeria four years ago came to an end. They did not agree to convene another meeting, as this summit was preceded by tense events that led the relations between the two neighboring countries to a predicament. What further complicated the situation is that the "Polisario" front did not change its positions, and it is not expected to do so in the near term, as long as the keys to the solution are distributed among many parties.

When Morocco gives a speech of estrangement, because it is no longer capable of making any additional concession to the other side, then the matter goes hand in hand with the repercussions of the settlement's predicament, because negotiations require new negotiators who enjoy the authority to make decisions. Perhaps the absent factor in the efforts to find a solution to the Sahara conflict is the decision to have the North African region different from what it is like today, in terms of the infightings and wars which are run with various weapons. But escalation remains a synonym for the solution which comes at the end of the day, even though unexpectedly.